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Kentucky Marching Network

LongTimeBandMan

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LongTimeBandMan last won the day on May 21

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About LongTimeBandMan

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    You touched my instrument. Prepare to die.

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  1. LongTimeBandMan

    Corona Talk

    June 15th ???? "Youth Sports (low touch and outdoors)" https://govstatus.egov.com/ky-healthy-at-work#MinimumRequirements
  2. LongTimeBandMan

    Corona Talk

    https://giphy.com/gifs/wooooo-tABM19ZPcjvNRF0yuNq
  3. LongTimeBandMan

    Corona Talk

    Ohio is resuming "low contact sports" on May 26th. No sure how that will impact marching band, exactly. But bands usually don't involve a lot of head locks and full-body tackles. https://www.nbc4i.com/sports/state-working-with-oshaa-for-school-sports-training-protocol/
  4. LongTimeBandMan

    Corona Talk

    KY restaurants can reopen May 22nd. So, that's a good sign.
  5. LongTimeBandMan

    Corona Talk

    I don't think any reasonable person wants to go from zero to 100%, or 'normal' instantly. A thoughtful, step-wise approach with the option to 'back-step' if numbers increase too much seems prudent. Unfortunately, jobs like yours and nursing homes, etc. would be among the last to resume 'normal'. It is a very big country with very different situations from state to state, and even within different areas of the same state. Some places are ready to begin the process of returning to normal. Some are not. COVID-19 is out of the barn door. It will never return to there not being risk of infections and deaths. We actually need a controlled return to 'normal' so we can ramp up more herd immunity. More herd immunity = decreased risk for everyone.
  6. LongTimeBandMan

    Corona Talk

    https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/upmc-says-coronavirus-surge-simply-hasnt-happened-will-resume-elective-surgeries.html UPMC said Tuesday the predicted surge of COVID-19 patients hasn’t arrived and cases are on the decline in central and western Pennsylvania. In light of that, UPMC plans to resume some of the elective surgeries that were canceled as the result of government directives to conserve beds and supplies for COVID-19 patients. “The very high surge we prepared for simply hasn’t happened,” said Dr. Donald Yealy, UPMC’s chair of emergency medicine. Hospitals and doctors are going broke, and people are missing important care — “elective” doesn’t mean “unimportant” — and the hospitals weren’t flooded anywhere but a few hotspots. UPMC says feared coronavirus surge ‘simply hasn’t happened,’ will resume elective surgeries. “Of 5,500 beds in the UPMC hospital system, only 2% are occupied by COVID-19 patients, as are 8% percent of intensive care beds, according to Yealy, who also said UPMC has strong supplies of protective equipment such as masks, shields and gowns.” We aren't completely out of the woods with coronavirus. But there is very real evidence that easing the lockdowns is both reasonable and important.
  7. LongTimeBandMan

    Corona Talk

    IHME still projects a dramatic drop-off in the number of cases and deaths between now and June 1st. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Kentucky: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/kentucky "After June 8, 2020, relaxing social distancing may be possible with containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limiting gathering size". Even earlier in Germany: https://covid19.healthdata.org/germany
  8. LongTimeBandMan

    Corona Talk

    Canceling something 5 months away seems premature. Maybe they have to commit a lot of money and resources to Oktoberfest prep several months in advance and don't want to gamble?
  9. LongTimeBandMan

    Corona Talk

    I agree with you about most of this. Question though: did they know they were positive before showing up, or did they show up and get tested before being allowed to see patients only to discover they were positive without having symptoms? We think roughly 40 percent of people can get this coronavirus with few to no symptoms.
  10. LongTimeBandMan

    Corona Talk

    1. Personal experience as a health care worker who just filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in my life. 2. Professional health worker contacts I have made with people in several states. 3. Reports directly from almost every professional health society in the country. 4. News reports that you can find with Google.
  11. LongTimeBandMan

    Corona Talk

    I get where you're coming from. Just remember, no matter how flat, the area under the curve remains the same. We are ultimately not going to to save more under the flatter curve than the taller curve, so long as the curve remains flat enough to prevent overwhelming the health care system. Currently, there is zero danger of overwhelming the system outside of New York City, perhaps. Across Kentucky and across the country, a great many health care workers are actually having their hours reduced and/or are filing for unemployment. Seems counter intuitive to be happening during a pandemic, but for every health care professional in high demand for COVID-19, there are probably 10 that are underutilized to the point of lost hours and wages.
  12. LongTimeBandMan

    Corona Talk

    FWIW, here's the 'back to normal' plan as seen by the feds: https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/?fbclid=IwAR0C5fQJdbgnfqE8GRtaobJgAy06mpWEgOibYGDeEXDei2HEuca4f_bF83Q#phase-one First glance...looks like states will be encouraged to enter 'Phase I' after a 14 day pattern of decreasing infections. Phase I still prohibits band. ☹️ Another 14 day period proving no significant rebound, and you're into 'Phase II'. In this phase, SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) can reopen. 🤘 And LARGE VENUES (e.g., sit-down dining, movie theaters, sporting venues, places of worship) can operate under moderate physical distancing protocols. So, looking at the numbers here https://kygeonet.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/543ac64bc40445918cf8bc34dc40e334, Kentucky could actually begin Phase I immediately. Barring a rebound, we could theoretically see band resume by June 1st easily. Obviously, this is very theoretical at this point. Here's one example of how this might still need time to play out to make sure we have better numbers of reported cases, however: https://www.cdc.gov/foodsafety/outbreaks/investigating-outbreaks/epi-curves.html
  13. LongTimeBandMan

    2020 Finals Predictions

    Agree with the dirt. But that show looked fun. My problem with Lafayette a lot of years is they seem to take few chances. Hard to argue with success, though. MC definitely took chances last year, and for the most part I think it helped. But, yeah. There was some dirt.
  14. LongTimeBandMan

    2020 Finals Predictions

  15. LongTimeBandMan

    2020 Finals Predictions

    Seems pretty reliable that CH is back, Grayson is staying out, and no one has heard anything about HC. Or they are keeping it quiet.
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