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3 hours ago, EpicClarinetPlayer937801 said:

Assume that they’re the exact same as last year just for fun lol.

Lafayette gets 1st in 5A. Beyond that, who knows. There were some different faces in finals last year so it'll be interesting to see where they play out this year

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Nicholas comes up and wins 1A after a year under Eric Hale.

Beechwood continues to rule 2A for at least 3 more years.

Murray continues to thrive in 3A, continues to up their design, and wins again until Adair or Estill steps it up to the next level. 

Anderson wins again in 4A, Harrison falls out allowing North Oldham their first finalist appearance ever. They were close last year.

Lafayette wins 5A.

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1A 

Williamstown 

Nicholas 

Cumberland 

Ocath 

Somerset 

mayfield 

I predict we have a repeat in finalists from 1A. Would love to see Williamstown pull it off. Nicholas will undoubtedly be good this coming season. O-Cath seems to have good seasons and bad seasons so we’ll see what happens and I really hope to see Somerset back again 

2A

Glasgow

Beechwood 

LaRue 

Hancock 

many combination of Washington, CAL, Mercer and John Hardin 

I’m more of a beechwood Stan but we can’t look past just how close Glasgow was last year which tells me they’ll be working hard for it. LaRue and Hancock are locks in this class imo. Hancock has really done some great stuff and I love seeing a program like that grow.

3A 

Murray 

Adair 

Russell 

Estill

taylor 

Mad south/Boyle/Garrard/Pulaski 

it’s no secret I’m an Adair homer but deep down I feel like these next couple of years is Murray’s moment. Adair had that moment, Bourbon had that moment, and Murray is putting their name right there with the greats. But with that said crazy things happen and I want every band in this class to have the best season ever and Adair be a little bit better ;) . I think Taylor is a lock in the low end of finals. 
 

4A 

Christian County 

Bourbon 

Anderson 

Hopkinsville

South Laurel

Harrison

im going bold and saying the Christian county schools blow us away with their farewell seasons and Both end it in the top 4. This class is Uber competitive so who knows what will happen 

 

5A 

Lafayette

Madison Central 

North Hardin 

GRC 

Ryle 

Central Hardin 

lafayette is on a new high and I don’t see it fading this season. The 2 bands I think we should all be watching as they grow is Central Hardin and GRC. They’re both in the early stages of new directors and showing lots of promise and I see those 2 growing greatly in the next couple of years 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Incognito said:

Anderson wins again in 4A, Harrison falls out allowing North Oldham their first finalist appearance ever. They were close last year.

 

1 hour ago, Saxophone2494 said:

4A 

Christian County 

Bourbon 

Anderson 

Hopkinsville

South Laurel

Harrison

im going bold and saying the Christian county schools blow us away with their farewell seasons and Both end it in the top 4. This class is Uber competitive so who knows what will happen 

I do feel like this year will be what determines Harrison's future, as it will be Sean's second year directing them. It's hard to say where they'll be but only time will tell.

After last year, I think Anderson will be very strong coming into this season. I have them at 1st for now, but Christian County Schools have shown great promise recently it is very possible for one of them to win as well. And then there's Bourbon who has always put on great performances.

Honestly looking forward to 4A like always. Love the competition🔥🎉

Edited by Ghetsis
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5A: Be interested to see if Dunbar can come back, if Wooley is allowed to work his SL magic.

Henry Clay will be there, and then the new Christian school in 2023. I call these my +2s (4 original finalists plus the new stuff). NH will be a definite wild card. Ryle should be able to overtake MC. Really interested to see if any of these larger schools grow in size.

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2 hours ago, bdit said:

5A: Be interested to see if Dunbar can come back, if Wooley is allowed to work his SL magic.

Henry Clay will be there, and then the new Christian school in 2023. I call these my +2s (4 original finalists plus the new stuff). NH will be a definite wild card. Ryle should be able to overtake MC. Really interested to see if any of these larger schools grow in size.

PLD is definitely in the mix. I know they get a lot of flack for their dip in quality but they still continue to be in or just outside of finals. 
 

not sure if I agree with your statement about Henry Clay. I want them to be there but they seem to always fall short. 

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8 minutes ago, Saxophone2494 said:

PLD is definitely in the mix. I know they get a lot of flack for their dip in quality but they still continue to be in or just outside of finals. 
 

not sure if I agree with your statement about Henry Clay. I want them to be there but they seem to always fall short. 

Yeah, worded that funny. Was referring to HC also having a shot.

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20 hours ago, Buckwheat said:

Get ready to see Beechwood is 3a

Highly unlikely considering beechwood was the cut line between 1A and 2A last year. 

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7 hours ago, theblowtorch said:

Highly unlikely considering beechwood was the cut line between 1A and 2A last year. 

I did some quick research and I could be wrong but Beechwood was 4A and if they weren’t then they were really close and only need to gain like 10 more members to be 5A size which would boost them to 3A 

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5 hours ago, Saxophone2494 said:

I did some quick research and I could be wrong but Beechwood was 4A and if they weren’t then they were really close and only need to gain like 10 more members to be 5A size which would boost them to 3A 

This is correct.

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And given their current rising success/quality… them being in 3A would make that class even more horrific—but I foresee a lot of 3A bands dropping down into 2A this season. It’s interesting the kind of “trend analysis” that the hybrid system enables.

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1A 

Williamstown 

Mayfield

Nicholas

Owensboro Catholic

Cumberland 

Lee County

Williamstown wins it all. Nicholas move up to 3rd. Lee County makes their first finals appearance. 

 

2A

Glasgow

Hancock

Beechwood

LaRue

Washington 

Mercer 

Glasgow and Hancock move up. Beechwood falls. Washington makes it back in and finishes 5th. 

 

3A 

Murray 

Estill

Adair

Madison Southern

Russell

Taylor

National champion Murray continues to dominant. Adair does better than last year. Madison Southern moves up, hopefully they visually catch up with their music.

 

4A 

Anderson

Christian

Bourbon

Harrison

South Laurel

Hopkinsville

Anderson continues to set themselves apart from the rest. Christian moves up for their last year. South Laurel drops, Harrison improves. 

 

5A 

Lafayette

Madison Central 

North Hardin 

GRC 

Ryle 

PLD

Lafayette continues to be untouchable but MC moves closer. GRC moves up. PLD makes it back in over Central Hardin. 

 

Edited by GustavHolst
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13 hours ago, trombobble said:

And given their current rising success/quality… them being in 3A would make that class even more horrific—but I foresee a lot of 3A bands dropping down into 2A this season. It’s interesting the kind of “trend analysis” that the hybrid system enables.

Don't think that happens 

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I doubt any of the 3A finalist drops to 2A except maybe Murray just because they’re a 1A school and just a little drop in numbers could send them back down to 4A size which would land them back in 2A. I don’t see Adair or Russell getting any smaller. Estill could potentially just from the way the hybrid system works with the averaging out into classes. Mad south would have to be 1A size. Taylor keeps pretty consistent numbers so. I think it’s more likely Glasgow lands back up in 3A again. 

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On 4/8/2022 at 1:43 PM, Buckwheat said:

Don't think that happens 

I don’t mean in the sense of directors looking at and predicting classes, if that’s what you think I mean. Just in general, I feel like it’s more easy to know now when bands are likely to switch class since you can see/know membership trends, especially in the bands people talk about more.

 

23 hours ago, Saxophone2494 said:

I doubt any of the 3A finalist drops to 2A except maybe Murray just because they’re a 1A school and just a little drop in numbers could send them back down to 4A size which would land them back in 2A. I don’t see Adair or Russell getting any smaller. Estill could potentially just from the way the hybrid system works with the averaging out into classes. Mad south would have to be 1A size. Taylor keeps pretty consistent numbers so. I think it’s more likely Glasgow lands back up in 3A again. 

Yeah my wonder is if any lower half of semis 3A bands will have a marginal shift that puts them down into 2A, and the top 6 of it especially. And the reverse for 2A finals band into 3A, similar to what happened with Russell Independent.

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31 minutes ago, trombobble said:

Yeah my wonder is if any lower half of semis 3A bands will have a marginal shift that puts them down into 2A, and the top 6 of it especially. And the reverse for 2A finals band into 3A, similar to what happened with Russell Independent.

I really hope no one would want to manipulate their band so they would be in one class over another. I would not be surprised either way. 

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1 hour ago, The Stig said:

I really hope no one would want to manipulate their band so they would be in one class over another. I would not be surprised either way. 

The new system doesn't promote growth in any way; we've got 1,000 student + schools with 50 players or less......and it was trending that way long before a pandemic. 

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A surprising issue for a good few programs is getting kids to want to do marching band. They get through middle school fine and then either stay in concert band but don’t do marching band or just drop band. It’s a big time commitment, even compared to some other activities. Blame culture for that, band or more broadly.

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On 4/9/2022 at 8:35 PM, trombobble said:

A surprising issue for a good few programs is getting kids to want to do marching band. They get through middle school fine and then either stay in concert band but don’t do marching band or just drop band. It’s a big time commitment, even compared to some other activities. Blame culture for that, band or more broadly.

Several different activities require a ridiculous amount of time and dedication. Since I am in my early 40's, I check facebook and see a TON of friends with kids that are MS-HS age. Travel sports have just taken over. I see band friends with kids that are not doing band and that's okay! My nephew didn't do HS band because of the time commitment and the ridiculous hand book the director handed out. The hand book alone was enough to make this director a 2 year and pink slipped teacher. The program went from meh to bleh in a short amount of time. 

At the time I was going to school it was an all-in or you're out mentality. I student taught at a school that had over 200 in the concert program and marched about 110. That program did have several first time marchers as sophomores. The reasons why they didn't do marching band freshman year varied.  

Recruiting is selling your program. A good director can change a culture. A great director can change the culture and sell a program. If you can get kids to do concert band their freshman year, they become a captive audience. They already have friends in the program. They know you. It should be an easy sale. 

Kids need inclusion. There is your golden opportunity. 

The best seller of a program has to be the MS director or who starts students out. Never discount your MS directors!! Some school systems might want to look at that when they hire one. 

Parents are willing to spend the money if they see value in what you offer. I see this all the time with the travel sports and other non-scholastic athletics. Don't let that scare you. 

 

On 4/9/2022 at 6:31 PM, bdit said:

The new system doesn't promote growth in any way; we've got 1,000 student + schools with 50 players or less......and it was trending that way long before a pandemic. 

A lack of growth always creates stagnation. Most of this has to do with the director. Kids are much different now than they were 10 years ago. 

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